What does Jason the Genie predict for 2026?
Happy New Year and Happy January Team Ballas family. For those that braved the terrible snowy/icy weather on December 28th to attend our Annual Client appreciation movie, THANK YOU and hope you all got home safe.
NEW YEAR RESOLUTIONS
The new year is here and so is the weather. I think we have seen a little bit of everything over the last couple of weeks from: large snowfalls, freezing rain, extreme cold, snow grains and more. In the spirit of new beginnings and resolutions, I wanted to personally thank you for your continued support and trust in our services. 2026 will mark 20 years in Real Estate for Team Ballas and, for this year, we strive to be your best source for everything real estate.
2026 PREDICTIONS
To have a little fun this month, I wanted to begin the year with some Real Estate predictions. These predictions are a little mix of both valid information and a little speculation but, nonetheless, they outline what Team Ballas expects over the coming months.
LITTLE TO NO DROP IN INTEREST RATES
Predictions for 2026 see little to no change in the Bank of Canada rate. Canadian banks want to create stability in the economy and continued rate drops indicate instability. If there is a rate drop, it will likely only be one drop for the entire year and likely not until the second half of 2026. In fact, some people are forecasting a potential increase in the overnight rate towards the end of the year.
BANK SALES WILL BE ON THE RISE
There are over 1 Million Canadian mortgages set to renew in 2026, many of which were at a much lower interest rate. Mortgages from 2021 and 2022 were at very aggressive rates below 2%. Renewals for 2026 will be at rates double or more than those previous rates. Couple this with job losses, increased cost of living and we may see many people losing properties to the banks.
GOVERNMENT WILL LIKELY OFFER BUYER INCENTIVES
To stimulate the economy and encourage buying, Government will potentially offer incentives like: no foreign buyer tax to encourage non-resident buyers and may look at extending mortgage amortization (length of mortgage) from the normal 25 year mortgage to 30+ year options.
NEW HOME BUILDERS TO DROP PRICING
In order to compete with the lower prices of resale homes, new construction may need to see a revision in pricing for brand new homes, otherwise, they will have a hard time being competitive in today’s market. Hopefully prices of materials do not thwart the efforts of builders and the need for affordable housing.
LEASED PROPERTIES WILL RISE
Housing is still an issue for many Canadians. If the economic uncertainty and job loss continue, many prospective Buyers may switch to renting until they are able to jump back into the market to purchase. Homes with secondary suites for multigeneration living will also be in demand as families pool resources together to make living more affordable.
HOME PRICES WILL DECREASE… SLIGHTLY
2026 will see slower immigration and less foreign students. Couple this with global/economic uncertainty, employment uncertainty and a decrease in foreign buyers investing in Canada, all of which contribute to LESS people buying. Less demand with steady, or even an increase in supply means downward pressure in pricing. That said, this decrease will likely be in the smaller range of 5% or less, depending on which market you are in and type of property it is.
2026 WILL BE A GOOD MARKET TO PURCHASE A PROPERTY
When surveyed, 1 out of 10 Canadians plan on buying a property in 2026, half of which are FIRST TIME BUYERS. When you consider the potential increase in inventory due to forced sales and economic reasons, plus the downward trend of Mortgage interest rates, potential Government policies assisting in buying AND the potential for lower prices, 2026 could be the BEST time to make a home purchase. This may be a first home, a downsize (especially for our older generations looking for financial stability), or even an investment property to take advantage of the rental demand.
MARKET TRENDS/STATISTICS
Click the image above to see December 2025’s sold statistics more closely.
In terms of Real Estate: if you have been following the market at all you may have noticed a large drop in listing inventory recently. This is normal for this time of year, as many agents have their listing contracts expire in December (usually late December to beginning of January). Many of these listings will be re-listed in the new year while others will wait a month or two to get that much closer to the early Spring Market. There is no right or wrong answer.
Total listings for the month of December went down between 20% and 33%, depending on the area. The number of listings in January will likely increase slightly, as many people wait for better weather before selling their homes. This represents a bit of an opportunity for some Sellers to list before the “rush” of a Spring market as Buyers have less inventory to choose from.
For the most part, average sale price for the month was down slightly in all but one market, but this had a minor effect on the average sale price for the year. While sales are down, leases are up and so is greater negotiability for Buyers entering the market. As always, contact Team Ballas for a more thorough synopsis of what is going on in YOUR market.
