Optimism, Stability, and Early Momentum
As we settle into 2026, we’re already seeing encouraging signs in both the real estate market and our local communities.
February Highlights
Happy February, Team Ballas family! This month is packed with meaningful milestones and community events.
• February 6th marked Rochelle and Jason’s 16th wedding anniversary (22 years together, after it took Jason six years to pop the question)
• February 14th is Valentine’s Day, falling on a Saturday this year
• February 16th is Family Day, and Royal LePage is proud to host our annual Family Day Public Skate
🎉 Free Family Day Public Skate
Royal LePage is offering free public skates at multiple locations, including:
Brockville, Kingston, Belleville, Trenton, Brighton, and Peterborough. Details below!
Mortgage Rate Announcement: January 2026
On January 28, the Bank of Canada released its first rate decision of 2026.
Here’s what you need to know:
• The Bank held its key policy rate at 2.25%
• The prime rate remains unchanged at 4.45%
• Variable-rate mortgage holders saw no change to their payments
• This marks the second consecutive rate hold, following rate cuts in 2025
• Inflation sat around 2.4% in December 2025
The Bank continues to take a cautious approach amid ongoing economic uncertainty. The next rate announcement is scheduled for March 18, 2026, and in Jason’s opinion, we’re likely to see the Bank hold rates steady for much of the year.
Optimistic Notes for the Months Ahead
Despite headlines that can feel heavy, there are several encouraging fundamentals shaping the market:
• Mortgage defaults remain extremely low
Even with over one million mortgages renewing in 2026, Canada maintains a default rate of just 0.25%, among the lowest in the world.
• Canada’s population is shifting
For the first time since Confederation, population growth is slowing due to reduced immigration, aging demographics, and lower birth rates (now close to one child per household).
• First-time buyers are coming
An estimated 4.5 million first-time buyers will be entering the market in the near future. Many Millennials and Gen Z buyers prefer move-in-ready homes, favouring convenience over renovations.
• Snowbirds may reinvest in Canada
Canada is home to over 1 million snowbirds, and 54% of those surveyed plan to sell their foreign or U.S. properties and reinvest back home. This could significantly strengthen Canada’s recreational and lifestyle markets.
Market Trends & Statistics: Early Signs of a Shift
As always, Team Ballas has included a market chart showing January sales, the first full month of data for 2026.
Click on the image above to view in more detail.
While 2025 ended with a relatively dismal market, January and early February are already telling a different story.
What we’re seeing on the ground:
• Buyer showings where properties are already sold conditionally
• New listings receiving offers within days or weeks
• Fall listings re-launched in January or February now selling quickly
• Some properties receiving multiple offers after previously seeing no activity
In January alone, Team Ballas completed 7 deals across sales and rentals. In the first few days of February, we already have 3 accepted offers.
Historically, these early months are slower — making this level of activity particularly noteworthy. It suggests buyers are coming off the fence and pent-up demand is starting to move.
What This Means for Buyers and Sellers
• Mortgage rates have stabilized
• Pricing appears to have levelled out
• Buyers still have negotiation power
• Well-priced homes are selling
For sellers, listing before the spring rush can mean less competition and faster results. Many current deals are closing in spring, allowing sellers to capitalize on early momentum while moving later in better weather.
For buyers, the coming months may present a rare window, before broader confidence returns and competition increases nationwide.
👉 Whether you’re buying, selling, or just watching the market, Team Ballas is here to help with a personalized market evaluation and strategy tailored to your location and goals.
