The Real Estate Market Is Starting to Bloom
May Highlights
Happy May Team Ballas family, and HAPPY MOTHER’S DAY TO ALL OUR PROUD MOTHERS OUT THERE.
We are still hoping those April showers bring some May flowers. Grass cutting season has officially started and we are finally getting some glimpses of nice weather, mixed with the occasional torrential rain, hailstorm, and gale-force winds. We are not entirely sure what is going on with Mother Nature.
Along with Mother’s Day on May 10th, May also brings Victoria Day on May 18th, as well as a variety of cultural, recreational, and sporting events throughout the region.
Based on typical spring market data, May generally represents a critical turning point in Canadian real estate, where higher inventory levels begin meeting returning buyers, often making it one of the peak pricing months of the spring season. National home sales frequently rebound in May following slower starts to the year, with larger markets like the Greater Toronto Area, Calgary, Vancouver, and Ottawa typically leading the way.
At the same time, new listings continue rising significantly, providing buyers with more choice and easing some of the pressure surrounding bidding wars. We have also continued seeing increased rental supply across many major centres, with construction activity in that segment reaching near-record highs.
Here at Team Ballas, it has already been a busy spring season. We have helped four Military families secure homes during their annual House Hunting Trips (HHTs), with two more military buyers scheduled to arrive later this month. Alongside that, we have continued helping our local buyers and sellers navigate the market while bringing several new listings to market, including a growing number of investment and multifamily opportunities.
Interest Rate Talk
As of May 2026, the Bank of Canada has held its policy interest rate at 2.25% for four consecutive announcements, including January, March, and April, effectively pausing the previous easing cycle. Rising inflation tied to the ongoing oil price crisis has slowed momentum for additional rate cuts and introduced the possibility of rate increases later this year. The next scheduled rate announcement is set for June 10, 2026.
Variable Rates
Because the Bank of Canada has maintained the overnight rate at 2.25%, prime lending rates have also remained relatively stable at approximately 4.45%, meaning most variable-rate mortgage holders have not seen payment changes in recent months.
Fixed Rates
Fixed mortgage rates have continued holding within a fairly tight range, largely influenced by 5-year bond yields sitting around 3.1% due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. This currently places many 5-year fixed mortgage products in the low 4% range, depending on the lender and borrower qualifications.
Economists remain divided on what comes next. Some believe rates could remain steady through the remainder of 2026, while others are forecasting increases toward 3.0% if inflation and oil prices continue climbing.
The key takeaway right now is that we are in a “wait-and-see” environment, where buyers and homeowners alike are watching inflation, fuel prices, and broader economic conditions very closely.
HST Announcement for New Construction Continued
We are all still navigating the opportunities created by the recently announced HST relief program for qualifying new construction purchases. As builders continue adapting to the incentive, we have already seen a significant increase in new construction inventory, along with notable price adjustments that are helping reduce the gap between resale homes and new builds.
This is giving buyers far more choice in the market and making new construction more attainable than it has been in years.
At Team Ballas, we currently have several exciting new construction opportunities available, and we have already helped multiple buyers secure new homes through these programs. One important reminder is that the HST rebate does not only apply to homes that are yet to be built. It can also apply to builder inventory homes that have never been occupied.
The current relief program remains available until March 31, 2027, creating a valuable window for buyers considering a move into new construction over the next year.
Market Trends & Statistics
Click on the image above to see it in more detail.
As we usually do, Team Ballas has included a chart highlighting sales activity from the previous month. In this case, April likely represents one of the clearest indicators yet of what the market may look like heading into the busy spring and summer seasons. The first few months of any year are often slower and less reflective of overall market conditions due to lower inventory and reduced activity.
April and the next few months moving forward begin painting a much clearer picture.
Inventory Levels
Inventory levels increased significantly across nearly all areas we track, with most regions seeing approximately a 20% increase in active listings month over month. Belleville experienced one of the largest increases, rising from 254 active listings at the end of March to 325 by the end of April, a jump of roughly 28%. Similar increases are expected throughout May as additional spring inventory continues entering the market.
Absorption Rates & Market Balance
One of the most important metrics we continue watching closely is absorption rate, often referred to as “months of inventory.” Traditionally, around 4 months of inventory represents a healthy balanced market.
Belleville, Quinte West, and Stirling have all moved closer toward balanced market conditions, with healthier ratios between active listings and completed sales. Prince Edward County, while still technically leaning toward a buyer’s market, saw a remarkable 44% drop in months of inventory, bringing it significantly closer to balanced territory.
- 19% increase in inventory
- 112% increase in sales month over month
Across most areas, sales activity increased between 60% and 130%, with the exception of Brighton, which saw softer sales activity and rising inventory levels. In Brighton’s case, the large amount of new construction activity, both completed and proposed, is likely skewing the numbers somewhat and making the market appear weaker statistically than it may actually be in practice.
Pricing Trends
Average sale prices showed modest increases across most regions month over month. This does not necessarily mean pricing is accelerating rapidly, but rather reflects a broader mix of inventory and completed sales entering the market during the spring season.
The overall takeaway is encouraging: inventory is improving, sales activity is increasing, and many local markets are moving toward healthier, more balanced conditions.
Here at Team Ballas, we expect May to continue this positive trend. We are bringing new listings to market daily, including several excellent opportunities for first-time buyers, retirees, and investor clients alike.
