Tariff Talk with Team Ballas
Prefer to learn more in video form? Click here
Welcome to March 2025. Approximately 5 years ago to the day we were faced with a life-threatening, world virus called COVID-19. 5 years later we are faced with a different kind of virus that threatens life as we know it. We survived Covid and we will most certainly get through this latest threat to the world order.
We Will Cover:
What is a tariff?
Canada’s current standing
Why they need us just as much as we need them
What this means for real estate in Quinte West
Prefer to learn more in video form? Click here.
“5 years later we are faced with a different kind of virus that threatens life as we know it.”
What is a Tariff?
A Tariff is essentially a tax imposed by the government of a Country on import or exports of goods. Besides being a source of revenue for the government it is meant to discourage importing goods from other countries and ENCOURAGE manufacturing, production and purchasing domestically. Tariffs put up barriers to trade purchasing in the long-term.
This does not happen overnight. It takes years to develop and nurture and is a very antiquated system of trade.
In 2018 during President Trump’s last term in office, he tried to abolish our Free Trade agreement and after a short period of disruption, the agreement saw some small revisions but essentially remained the same as it has since the Mulroney government in the late 80s.
The chief analysts at Royal LePage as well as our CEO Phil Soper believe that there will be some sort of resolution letting the U.S president feel as though he has accomplished some sort of victory for U.S.A.
This may also include improved Border security for the prevention of cross border illegal distribution of Fentanyl.
“Canada is a Strong Independent Economy.”
Canada is a Strong Independent Economy.
We have the 9 th largest economy out of 195 Countries.
We are the 5th the fastest growing economy in the world
and the 2nd fastest growing economy in the Western world (taking Countries like China out of the mix).
Truth is…
Americans need us as much as we need them.
150 million Americans depend on us for electricity.
In 36 U.S states Canada is not only a strong trading partner, but we are also the DOMINANT trading partner.
Canada is a domestic market. In regard to new construction, lumber is Canadian, and labour is Canadian.
We are a dominant source of natural resources such as: oil and gas, minerals, forests, freshwater and fertile soil.
In recent years energy products were worth nearly $230 Billion and Canada has the third-largest oil reserves in the world.
Royal LePage is 100% A Canadian Company
Built by Canadians FOR Canadians for over 110 years.
Our CEO stands by his fourth-quarter predictions from the fall of 2024 with a slight change.
Instead of the organization predicting a strong EARLY SPRING market, Royal LePage is forecasting a strong market for 2025 but with a slight delay until later Spring, early Summer.
With a combination of pent-up demand and five Bank of Canada rate drops in 2024, including 2 drops at 50 basis points (plus one drop so far in 2025), the Real Estate market is still showing signs of a strong 2025.
“Royal LePage and Team Ballas are 100% Canadian”
Facts to Note
Prices are up 6% nationally year-over-year, default rates on mortgages are only 0.14%, which is still one of the lowest globally.
By comparison, U.S has a mortgage default rate 15 times higher than we do.
Unemployment rate remains steady at approximately 6%, which means 94% of Canadians are employed.
Wages and salaries are rising faster than the cost of housing and household savings are UP.
There is still a huge need and shortage of housing.
New Home Buyers and New Canadians make up most of the pent-up demand for housing.
Optional Buyers (Buyers that don’t necessarily NEED to purchase but would LIKE to) may find themselves staying where they are, but this other segment of New Buyers and Immigrants will dominate the market in 2025.
Millennials make up the majority of the population, but they do not represent the majority of homeowners.
Baby Boomers (1946 -1964) are a much smaller part of the demographic yet hold more Real Estate than all of the other generations combined!
Multi-generational wealth transfer (transfer of wealth from Boomers) will start occurring more and more as Boomers downsize and younger generations inherit their wealth.
Moreover, Millennials are at an age that they are looking to secure their own real estate, and they have been “sitting on the fence” for far too long.
Furthermore, Tariffs can and will weaken the Canadian dollar which will essentially negate or equalize the increase due to Tariff tax. If the Canadian dollar is weaker then the American dollar goes that much further in Canada.
In Summary
Most of the effects of Tariffs will be psychological. Yes, there may be a period in early Spring where consumer confidence is low and Buyers may hesitate on getting into the Real Estate market but, we at Team Ballas think this is a great time to purchase Real Estate in the Quinte, Northumberland and Prince Edward County areas.
Remember, the Banks will monitor employment, housing and inflation and likely use or lower interest rates to encourage buying.
As well, if new construction increases in price beyond normal levels, then this may encourage people to buy existing resale homes. More demand on resale homes could result in higher prices.
“Most of the effects of Tariffs will be psychological.”
What Does This Mean for Real Estate
in Quinte West?
Lastly, Real Estate in our area is still a very attractive and affordable option, especially for people looking to downsize and move away from the City. In studying our LOCAL Real Estate trends and statistics, we clearly see a STABLE, BALANCED market and we at TEAM BALLAS see that trend continuing through 2025 and beyond.
For an up-to-date conversation on the market, an evaluation on your home or anything Real Estate, contact us at TEAM BALLAS,
your one-stop shop for everything Real Estate in Belleville, Trenton, Picton and surrounding areas.
-Jason Ballas
Let’s Talk Mortgages in 2025: Click the image above to watch the video.
