The Thanksgiving Test, Fall Buyers & the October Market
Click the video above to watch OPERATION TURKEY FIT, or click here.
Happy October, Team Ballas family.
Fall is definitely in the air. The leaves are changing and falling, and just today I received a frost advisory warning for overnight. I am not sure about you, but personally, I am not ready for winter quite yet. Hopefully, we will have a late burst of unseasonably high temperatures to finish off the month.
October brings a bunch of important events, including Thanksgiving and, of course, Halloween. Thanksgiving technically falls on Monday, October 12th, but most people will celebrate over the weekend. Rochelle and I will be celebrating family time on the Sunday and hosting at our house, with the kids all coming home for Thanksgiving. Apparently, it is the busiest grocery shopping weekend of the year, even beating out Christmas for first place.
Check out this month's funny Bugle video, where we visit some of our favourite real estate listings to see if these homes pass the THANKSGIVING TEST. We are calling it “OPERATION TURKEY FIT”.
Halloween is also coming up on October 31st, which is also the night that the clocks go back an hour. Technically, the time change happens at 2am on November 1st, but most people will make the change before heading to bed on the 31st. That means an extra hour for all those ghosts and ghouls to party in the graveyards.
With roughly a month having passed since the kids went back to school, we are seeing a moderate rise in BUYER activity. It seems as though the PENT-UP demand is coming to a head and buyers are out there looking.
It does not mean that the market has flipped to some great Seller's market. Rather, it means there are Buyers out there who are ready to buy. They feel the stability in the banking industry and they have a lot of great homes to choose from. Pricing is still key, with value being the primary concern of today's Buyer.
With the transition from early fall to late Autumn, the market may see a strategic window where serious buyers face less competition from the summer crowds and can negotiate more favourable terms before the winter market lull. Nobody likes to move in the winter, so Fall buyers are serious buyers.
Team Ballas has been busy these last few weeks, with Buyer showings almost every day, and the result has been some great deals for our Buyer clients.
For Sellers, Fall is the time for home maintenance items. Drain exterior hoses and pipes, turn off outside water lines, clean the gutters before the late Autumn rains, and remember to service your HVAC systems ahead of the winter chill.
Those Sellers who are currently for sale can make their homes feel warm and inviting during cooler days. Use warm lighting, subtle Autumn porch decor, and keep driveways and yards clear of fallen leaves.
As a token of appreciation, Team Ballas would like to give thanks to all of our great clients and advocates. We love what we do, but we could not do it without the trust and support we get from our wonderful clients and friends. For all of you, we give thanks and wish you and your family a happy Thanksgiving holiday.
We encourage you to share what you can with those in need. Places like Gleaners Food Bank in Belleville and the Trenton Care & Share Food Bank are great places to encourage community donations.
While out and about, don't forget to enjoy some of the great Fall harvests. Check out apple orchards near Brighton, take in fall winery events in Prince Edward County, or enjoy a scenic Autumn drive around the Bay of Quinte.
Interest Rate Talk
The Bank of Canada held its key policy interest rate steady at 2.25% during its last announcement on September 2, 2026. This marked the seventh consecutive hold since October 2025. However, the economic tone is shifting quickly as we enter autumn. Retail banks are keeping their standard Prime Lending Rate at 4.45% for now, but pressure is building for a potential change before the end of the year. Governor Tiff Macklem explicitly flagged rising upside risks to inflation due to elevated energy prices and geopolitical uncertainties.
The next interest rate announcement is scheduled for Wednesday, October 28, 2026, and it will include a full Monetary Policy Report (MPR), detailing the economic outlook.
Fixed Mortgage Rates: Fixed rates are heavily influenced by the 5-year government bond yield, which has climbed toward 3.6%. Because bond yields are under pressure from rising energy costs and global tariff risks, fixed-rate mortgage pricing remains volatile and elevated.
Variable Mortgage Rates: Variable rates are directly tied to the bank's policy rate. With the rate held at 2.25%, variable-rate holders haven't seen their payments move since late last year.
Major financial institutions and investment banks are shifting their predictions, calling for a 25-basis-point rate hike, potentially as early as the October 28 meeting, to curb inflation pressures. For buyers, locking in a pre-approval rate right now is a smart defensive move to protect against any autumn or winter rate hikes.
As discussed previously, over 1 million mortgages renew this year in Canada.
Market Trends & Statistics
Click the image above to view it in more detail.
The September real estate numbers were not far off from those in August, with a small drop across the board in the number of active listings as well as a small drop in the number of sales month over month. In most cases, the drop was only about 5% from last month, and this can be attributed to some homes that sold and fewer new listings to replenish the current inventory.
Fall listings drop off a bit due to Sellers not wanting to potentially move through winter. Therefore, inventory tends to be less as we approach winter, as homes either get sold or expire without selling.
At Team Ballas, we are consistently doing market evaluations for people regardless of the time of year. In fact, we have had an uptick in the number of new listing appointments from Sellers looking for information on the market as well as wanting to get an up-to-date market evaluation for their property.
At Team Ballas, we will discuss the pros and cons of when to list your home, including strategies that are in YOUR best interest.
With fewer new listings coming to market, this could mean less competition for Sellers who need to sell this fall.
For Buyers, it is important to be ready and strike when you find the right place. With rates potentially on the rise and decreasing options, other buyers may be looking at the same houses that you are. If you don't act decisively, you may lose out.
Get your pre-approval to minimize financing approval wait times and lock in your mortgage rate before they go up. Lastly, contact Team Ballas to set up a home tour based on your buying preferences. We typically aim to show you a handful of homes at the same time, maximizing your time and allowing you to directly compare neighbourhoods and values.
Belleville
For the month of September, Belleville saw 10 fewer sales than August, with 57 sales versus 67 in August, and the number of active listings dropped below 300, down to 294 active listings at the end of September. Average sale price was up a bit from August, which increased the yearly average only slightly, up to $527,776.
Brighton
Brighton had a better month in September than in August, but August was a low benchmark to compare to. Despite having 138 active listings, which is less than August, September sales were up by 2 sales to 18. This represents the only region we are discussing that had an increase in sales versus the previous month.
The fewer active listings and higher sales mean the months of inventory crept closer to a balanced market by 1.5 months, still solidly a Buyer's market at 7.67 months of inventory, compared to 9.18 months in August.
There was a slight drop in average sale price, both for the month and for the year, in Brighton. The average for the year is still higher than Belleville or Quinte at $672,478.
Check out a great new listing we have in the Brighton by the Bay Adult community, located at 60 Shewman Rd.
Prince Edward County
September numbers mirrored August numbers, with only a small decrease in both the number of listings and sales for the month. The number of active listings still remains high at 297, but the County still saw 30 sales last month and saw a huge jump in average sale price for September versus August.
The average sale price for September rose by 27% to $860,597 for the month. This increased the average for the year up to $722,937, the highest in this list.
The County still proves to be a great place for dining, entertainment and events.
Quinte West
There was a bigger drop in sales in Quinte month over month, dropping from 57 sales in August to 41 sales in September.
Quinte sales are largely dependent on Military transfers, and we see these drop off to almost nothing by September. There is still lots of new construction and support of development, making Quinte an affordable and attractive place to live, close to the Bay of Quinte and with easy access to both the 401 corridor and Prince Edward County to the south.
There were still a staggering 493 homes sold year to date, with the average sale price dropping slightly by about 7%. Average sale price is still solid in the high $560s.
Stirling-Rawdon
Only 2 sales in the month of September, which is down by 1 compared to August's 3 sales. With 38 active listings and only 2 sales, the months of inventory is a whopping 19 months.
Remember, this number is not completely indicative of the true market as it is such a small cross-section of sales. Average sale price is still comparable to Belleville in the $530K range.
